- The Sovereign Signal
- Posts
- 🏰 Private Money Awakens: The Siege on COMEX Has Begun
🏰 Private Money Awakens: The Siege on COMEX Has Begun
~300-to-1: The Leverage Ratio Primed To Viciously Recalibrate The Silver Market
📡 SIGNAL DASHBOARD📡
Signal | Level/Status | Interpretation |
---|---|---|
Spot Silver | $36.139 weekly close | 🔥 Confirmed breakout above 2012 ceiling |
Morgan Rule (3-day breakout) | Day 2 of 3 | 80% chance this breakout is just getting started if silver closes above $35 with moderate to strong volume on Monday |
Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) | 92.6 | 🔴 Maximum distortion, ripe for compression |
Silver COT (Managed Money) | +8,741 new longs | 🧨 Speculators charging in — disbelief breaks at velocity |
Silver COT (Commercials) | +7,235 new shorts | ⚔ Entrenched resistance from the gatekeepers |
Total COMEX OI (Net) | +1,106 new positions | 🧠 Skirmish at the inflection point — tension rising |
COMEX Registered Silver Inventory | ~159 million oz | 🪫 The COMEX trades an estimated 1/8 to 1/6 of its entire registered silver supply every single trading day — in paper form. |
Silver Miners (SIL ETF) | Breakout Confirmed | 🟢 Risk curve confirmation underway |
Platinum | $1,160 | 🟢 White metal rotation validating |
🧠STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS — “The Empire Is Short. The Rebellion Has Begun.”
This week’s COT report is not just another update — it is a declaration of intent.
Non-commercial speculators (private money) added 8,741 new long positions, while commercial banks — the usual gatekeepers of suppression — layered in 7,235 fresh shorts.
The total increase in open interest (longs vs shorts) was nearly neutral: 13,653 new longs vs 14,759 new shorts — a net skirmish of +1,106.
Interpretation? Private capital is storming the gates. The banks are digging trenches.
This is not normal market behavior.
This is a battle for control of the tape, fought not with fundamentals, but positioning and price containment.
And it’s playing out on COMEX — the deepest silver derivatives market in the world, which prices the metal for the globe.
This divergence is the ignition spark for parabolic repricing.
This isn’t about hedging anymore.
It’s about control — and who gets to define value in a collapsing fiat era.
Silver has broken above its 13-year ceiling. The price chart is no longer ambiguous.
Every ounce of disbelief shorted by the banks becomes potential combustion if the rally accelerates.
The longer this goes on, the more explosive the path forward to the eventual new all time-highs will be.
This is how short squeezes begin.
🪙COMEX REGISTERED INVENTORY
Headline number: COMEX total silver inventory sits at ~495.5 million ounces.
→ But that’s not the real story.Reality check: Only ~159 million ounces are registered — meaning they’re actually available for delivery against futures contracts.
→ That’s just 32% of visible inventory.What does “registered” mean?
→ “Registered” = available for delivery.
→ “Eligible” = privately stored in COMEX-approved vaults, but not guaranteed to be delivered.
🌍GLOBAL SILVER MARKET STRUCTURE — “The Deficit is the Signal. The Leverage is the Fuse.”
Annual global silver supply (2023–2024 range): ~997.8 million to ~1.015.1 billion ounces
→ Includes mine production (~812.7–819.7M oz) and recycling (~183.5–193.9M oz)Annual global silver demand (2023–2024 range): ~1.198.5 billion to 1.164.1 billion ounces
→ Driven by:Industrial: ~55% (solar, EVs, electronics)
Investment: ~25%
Jewelry & silverware: ~20%
Net result:
→ Structural deficit for 5 years straight
→ 2023 deficit estimated at 200.7M ounces
→ 2024 deficit estimated at 149M ouncesNo above-ground surplus left:
→ Major ETFs and depositories (e.g. SLV, COMEX) are bleeding metal to meet physical delivery pressurePaper silver leverage:
→ It’s estimated more than 300x more paper silver is traded annually than there is physical silver available for delivery
→ COMEX alone sees 5-6 billions of ounces in paper silver turnover annually against just ~159M oz registered
→ This is not a price. It’s an illusion of liquidity.Bottom line:
→ If just a small percentage of contracts demanded delivery, the entire pricing mechanism would rupture
→ The silver market doesn’t need more demand — it needs one ignition event for the revaluation to begin
🔮PROBABILITY ZONES — “The Staircase or the Slingshot”
Scenario | Probability | Narrative |
---|---|---|
🟢 Controlled Continuation | 50–55% | Price consolidates $36–$39; COT tug-of-war tightens. |
🟠 Reflexive Rally to $50+ | 25–30% | Private capital overwhelms short resistance — gamma flows ignite. |
🔴 Backtest to $31–$32 | 10–15% | Margin hikes, ETF selling, or hedge fund washout create brief pullback. |
⚫ Macro Shock Reversal | 3–5% | Fed jawbone, DXY spike, or systemic liquidity seizure resets volatility. |
💡Final Reflection
This isn’t about chasing tops or swinging for manias.
It’s about recognizing that we are crossing the threshold where real assets, real trust, and real systems start to assert dominance over illusions of control.
If this silver move holds above $35 through Monday… the rest of the world may finally start waking up.
And the second act of the silver bull — the one that rewrites portfolios and careers — may have just begun.
Access to real metal is still available—for now.
But as spreads widen and premiums spike during the next volatility surge, you’ll wish you acted when your dollars stretched further.
Through my vetted and trusted referral partners, you can:
✅ Acquire physical gold and silver (coins, bars, IRA-ready) at industry-best pricing
✅ Get white-glove service from real humans who know the macro, not pushy salespeople
✅ Receive priority fulfillment even when other dealers lock their doors
✅ Diversify silently, securely, and strategically before the next COMEX shockwave
🥇 “If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it” isn’t a slogan anymore—it’s survival protocol.
If you’ve been reading my work and waiting for the clearest signal yet—this is it.
📩 Text or email me the word “METAL” and I’ll introduce you directly to the most reliable source I know. No spam. No pressure. Just alignment and action.
You already feel the shift.
Now move like you mean it.
Luke Lovett
📲 Cell: 704.497.7324
🌐 Undervalued Assets | Sovereign Signal
📧 Email: [email protected]
🔐Legal Disclaimer
The content provided herein is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, investment professional, or attorney. The views expressed are solely those of the author and are not intended to be relied upon for making investment decisions.
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, no guarantee is given that all content is free from error, omission, or misinterpretation.
Market data, trends, and conditions are subject to rapid change, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Some views expressed may reference public insights from respected analysts and commentators. Third-party content may be paraphrased or summarized for educational purposes only, with attribution, and does not imply endorsement or affiliation. All rights remain with the original creators.
⚠️ Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor or registered investment professional before making any investment decisions. By reading this publication, you agree not to hold the author liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.
Note: I am not a metals dealer. All orders are processed directly by a licensed precious metals dealer. I do not hold funds, process transactions, or provide personalized investment advice.
Reply