🚨 The Dollar Is Surging. The Bond Market Is Bleeding. And America's Wealth Machine Is Caught in the Middle.
The world's reserve currency is approaching an 18-month high while the market for the world's benchmark sovereign debt is experiencing a violent repricing. That combination deserves far more attention than either chart receives independently.
The Risk-Free Rate Is Becoming the Risk: 5.70% Treasuries, 17% Junk Borrowing Costs and a Silver Curve That Refuses to Normalize
The financial system will be repricing itself because of the Treasury market. And if policymakers subsequently respond with sufficient liquidity to prevent that repricing from becoming disorderly, the ultimate destination may be the same place markets are already beginning to contemplate: not the destruction of nominal claims—but the repricing of the scarce real assets against which those claims are measured.
The Most Fragile Bull Market in Decades: 23% Breadth, $1.45T Margin Debt and Record Japanese Yields
The AI boom requires enormous quantities of physical infrastructure at the same moment we're detecting genuine bottlenecks in copper concentrate, refined fuels, energy logistics and other immediately available industrial inputs.
