Silver's "paper" market is completely disconnected from physical reality. Michael Oliver (Momentum Structural Analysis) believes $300-$500 silver may be in the cards in 2026.

The last week of January saw over 6 billion ounces of silver traded — 7+ years of global production — in a single week, while physical inventories in Shanghai and COMEX are collapsing.

…6+ billion ounces of paper silver traded in one week — that’s leverage-based capitulation, not fundamentals.

The SHFE, a physical-demand-driven market, is bleeding silver at unprecedented speed.

SHFE (Chinese) vaults are near 2015 lows, down over 50% year-to-date, and COMEX (Western silver) ALREADY has more positions standing for physical delivery February than it did the entire month of February 2025.

The decline in available metal is setting up a supply-side pressure cooker.

Meanwhile, China has ramped up gold buying for 15 straight months, accumulating record reserves while also directing banks to reduce exposure to U.S. Treasuries — signaling strategic de-dollarization and a possible move toward revaluing its own currency.

They’re likely preparing for a geopolitical and monetary shift — reducing USD risk and elevating hard assets as collateral, which strengthens the revaluation thesis behind $8,500 (or higher) gold.

This happens just as U.S. debt interest payments to foreign holders explode past $292 billion/quarter, an unsustainable trajectory that reveals deep structural instability.

The U.S. debt spiral is not sustainable.

A gold revaluation would solve this by implicitly backing debt with collateral.

And as gold is the collateral of last resort, a repricing (e.g. $147K+ gold) could "cleanse" sovereign debt burdens.

The market knows this, even if most don’t see it yet.

Short, Mid, and Long-Term Forecast for Gold and Silver

• Short-Term (Now through March):

  • Expect a rebound in silver and gold as synthetic pressure fades and inventories remain tight.

  • Volatility increases as market begins to reprice risk more honestly.

  • Look for signs of COMEX defaults, delivery failures, or further vault drainage.

• Mid-Term (Spring–End 2026):

  • Silver potentially moves toward $300-$500+ as premiums rise and trust in paper markets erodes.

  • Gold climbs past $6,000 as central banks accelerate accumulation and sovereign debt credibility continues to erode.

• Michael Oliver (Momentum Structural Analysis) expects a rebound by March, suggesting the recent sell-off was synthetic and near exhaustion.

  • This aligns with the collapse in inventories and the signs of capitulation we've seen across SHFE and COMEX.

• Silver is projected to reach $300–$500 in 2026, not based on hype but on structural imbalances in physical supply/demand.

• $8,500 for gold is framed not as a bubble top, but as a “normal bull market” move — a shift in baseline expectations about what fair valuation looks like in a monetary regime under stress.

• The correction has flushed weak hands, which is consistent with recent market action:

  • massive volumes of paper silver were dumped, while miners held relatively firm — a sign of commercial accumulation, not panic selling.

• No fixed target beyond $8,500 — suggesting there is no ceiling once the revaluation thesis plays out and the dollar is repriced via hard collateral (gold and silver).

SGS-CPI Silver Adjusted to $1,728: 

This provides historical context — in real purchasing power terms, silver may already be “cheap.”

A move to $300–$500 is not a moonshot, it’s a normalization under structural stress.

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Luke Lovett
Cell: 704.497.7324
Undervalued Assets | Sovereign Signal
Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer:
This content is for educational purposes only—not financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. I’m not a licensed advisor, and nothing herein should be relied upon to make investment decisions. Markets change fast. While accuracy is the goal, no guarantees are made. Past performance ≠ future results. Some insights paraphrase third-party experts for commentary—without endorsement or affiliation. Always do your own research and consult a licensed professional before investing. I do not sell metals, process transactions, or hold funds. All orders go directly through licensed dealers.