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220% Buffett Indicator. $37T Debt. $22T Money Supply. And Now SHFE Prepares Gold to Replace Treasuries as Collateral
Jobs revised down 900K. $18T household debt. 446 bankruptcies — the most in 15 years. With bonds buckling under impossible leverage and China testing gold for repo/high quality liquid assets status, the 54-year fiat base layer is unraveling. The question isn’t if gold reclaims its role as the ultimate collateral — it’s how explosively the transition ends up being.
Silver >$44 (14-yr high) as AI hits $30T, Shiller P/E 40+, and the Mag-7 swell to 35% of the S&P
Freight shipments have slumped to crisis-era lows while SLV borrow ~2.5% and COMEX price + volume + Open Interest all rise; JP Morgan is long gold/silver and short base metals. Translation: equities are hyper-concentrated and priced for perfection, but the metals tape is tightening—capital is starting to choose collateral over narrative.
Silver Scoreboard Analysis (COT Data Sep 10 → Sep 16; released Sep 19)
Price: $41.34 → $42.917 (+3.81%). As of Sep 22 (5:45am ET): $43.925 (+6.25% from Sep 10, +2.35% since Sep 16 close). Open interest (Futures): +6,251 to 162,954 (+3.99%). Open interest (Futures+Options): +13,169 to 203,293 (+6.93%). Translation: price up + open interest up = new positions were opened into the rally (not just shorts covering).
A Record $1.3T in Debt Added in 79 Days while Margin Debt Makes New Record Highs for the 3rd Consecutive Month & Gold Hits 30-Year High In Global Reserves
The fastest debt accumulation in U.S. history, three straight months of record borrowing to speculate in stocks, and gold now commanding 24% of global reserves—all signal the same endgame: the machinery of monetary control is breaking, and capital is fleeing toward assets that can’t default or dilute.
The Lower Rates Lever Is Broken
Back on July 31st, we flagged the terrifying possibility that the Fed’s most powerful tool — rate cuts — no longer works...From September to December 2024, the Fed cut 100bps, yet the 10-year yield rose and so did real borrowing costs in the economy. Now fast-forward. The Fed finally cut again... and within days, mortgage rates jumped 15bps to 6.37%. Exactly the same paradox we warned about.
3rd Straight Record High in Margin Debt, 3rd Straight Global Equity ‘Sell Signal’: The Leverage Bubble Meets the Liquidity Trap
U.S. margin debt has surged to $1.06T—its 3rd monthly record high in a row—while institutional cash levels at 3.9% have triggered a global equities sell signal for the 3rd straight month. History is unambiguous: this combination of record leverage and record-low cash precedes explosive drawdowns. The stage is set for forced liquidations—and for capital to seek refuge in the only assets without counterparty risk: gold and silver.
The Cracks in the Foundation: Debt, Dollar, and the Great Reset of Value
Consumer credit surging past $5T, mortgage stress eclipsing 2008, banks buried under $395B in hidden losses, and G7 debt ratios spiraling toward 600%—all as the dollar teeters on a 14-year support break. The old order is buckling. The question is no longer if, but what replaces it.
55 Tonnes in a Month, +15% Commodities, 2% Inflation ‘Target’ in Shreds—The Quietest Gold Squeeze Is Becoming the Loudest Currency Collapse
Shanghai’s inventories explode, China’s real gold buying runs 10x official reports, and the Fed cuts rates into 11.6% CPI drift above trend—financial repression isn’t policy error, it’s the plan. The stage is set for the largest transfer of wealth in modern history.
23¢ on the Dollar, $11B a Day, and 26 Months of Gold Buying: The Great Repricing Has Begun
Interest now eats nearly a quarter of U.S. tax revenue, deficits compound at $11B every day, and the long end has broken free from policy control. Central banks — the most well-funded, best-informed traders on Earth — have bought gold for 26 straight months, even as RSI hits a 45-year high. Dalio calls for 10–15% in gold, while Bank of America warns that shifting just 1% of reserves into silver equals five years of global supply. The signal is clear: gold is the anchor, silver is the lever, and the escape hatch from five decades of distortion is finally swinging open.
The M2 Mirage: 13.8x More Dollars, But Silver Still 13% Below 1980
Broad money supply is up nearly 14x since 1980, yet gold has only climbed 4.3x and silver hasn’t even recovered. With SLV borrow costs spiking and borrowable shares disappearing, the market’s pressure valve is breaking — and real money is preparing for liftoff.