🧙‍♂️ The First to Fall: Japan, Oracle of the Endgame

🧙‍♂️ The First to Fall: Japan, Oracle of the Endgame

When the oldest disciple of Keynes begins to tremble, the whole temple shakes.

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
Why Is Nobody Talking About the Deeply Negative 10-Year Swap Spread❓

Why Is Nobody Talking About the Deeply Negative 10-Year Swap Spread❓

At -29bps This Morning - The 10 Year Swap Spread Has Been Near Record Levels For Months Now ➡️ It’s a leading indicator that the foundation of the system (Treasuries as perfect collateral) is under pressure.

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
When the Collateral Gods Depart

When the Collateral Gods Depart

How Basel III, SLR Shifts, and the Unraveling of Trust Are Resetting the World’s Financial Bedrock

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
Liquidity and Collateral 🐉

Liquidity and Collateral 🐉

How the East Has Stockpiled Real Money—While the West Sleeps on a Crumbling Foundation

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
🇺🇸 Happy 4th of July.

🇺🇸 Happy 4th of July.

“How can man die better than facing fearful odds?”—Horatius

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
🧩 The Signals No One Sees Converging

🧩 The Signals No One Sees Converging

How SOFR’s Relentless Surge, a Gold Collateral Flash Raid, Silver’s Defiance Against Historic Shorts, and the Basel–SLR Gambit Are Quietly Repricing Everything

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
🫀 The Palpitating Heart of the System

🫀 The Palpitating Heart of the System

Where Funding Stress, Collateral Decay, and Silent Panic Converge

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
When the Veins of the Machine Seize

When the Veins of the Machine Seize

What One Flash of GLD and a Whisper in Repo Land Scream For Those With Ears To Hear

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
🧬 Base Layer Repricing: The Granular Anatomy

🧬 Base Layer Repricing: The Granular Anatomy

Every financial era has a consensus base layer—the thing everyone agrees is ultimate collateral. For the first time in human history, the global collateral layer is 100% debt.

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
🥷The Glitches That End the Cycle

🥷The Glitches That End the Cycle

Reading the Tells of a System at Peak Leverage and Minimum Resilience

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
🏛 SLR: The Next Liquidity Backstop — And Why It Guarantees an Even Bigger Unwind

🏛 SLR: The Next Liquidity Backstop — And Why It Guarantees an Even Bigger Unwind

Liquidity backstops buy time—but they increase the embedded leverage. Every new buffer—like the SLR changes—only stretches the chain of hidden fragility further. The system is stable... until it isn’t.

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
💱 USD/JPY, USD/CHF & 10Y Swap Spread: Fractures in the Global Collateral Vein

💱 USD/JPY, USD/CHF & 10Y Swap Spread: Fractures in the Global Collateral Vein

USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and the 10-Year Swap Spread are no longer whispers—they're warnings. As capital begins to recoil from leverage and re-anchor in real value, Gold and silver are no longer spectators in this shift—they’re where capital goes when the system demands finality.

Luke Lovett
Luke Lovett
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