- The Sovereign Signal
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Most Recent COT Report Shows Commercials Used Silver Price Dip To Close Shorts & Add Long Positions, Gold Still Just Roughly .6% of Investor Portfolio Allocations (4 Decade Average For Precious Metals In US is 2%), Iran Strike May Cause Global Margin Call Via Next Leg of Yen Carry Trade Unwind

Luke Lovett
US Bankruptcies Hit Highest Rate Since COVID, Margin Debt Makes Yet Another All Time High, 0DTE Options' Volume Hits New Records, Consumer Credit Card Debt 90 Days Past Due Hits Record 12.7%, Equity Risk Premium Goes Negative
Silver is the other side of the risk on speculative, driven mania.

Luke Lovett
China just made it much harder to short silver unless you can prove you actually need to hedge a real physical position - new rules eliminate automatic rollovers for those short positions month to month. COMEX silver is leaving vaults at a high-velocity rate (~4M oz/day recently), with only ~101M oz registered (deliverable) left.
Buckle up brah.

Luke Lovett
Silver's "paper" market is completely disconnected from physical reality. Michael Oliver (Momentum Structural Analysis) believes $300-$500 silver may be in the cards in 2026.
The last week of January saw over 6 billion ounces of silver traded — 7+ years of global production — in a single week, while physical inventories in Shanghai and COMEX are collapsing.

Luke Lovett
China Suspends 6 Groups of Accounts Amidst Abnormally Large Silver Liquidations, Silver Lease Rates Back Above 6% in London, Over 1 Billion Ounces of Silver Traded Daily In Last 7/9 Days, SHFE Vault Bleeds 15% In One Day
Silver's fundamentals are screaming "HIGHER NOW." We'll see how long it takes for price action to follow.

Luke Lovett
Did Silver Shorts Just Narrowly Avoid A Default By Draining Vaults During Friday's Sell Off?
Typically, 1-3% of COMEX contracts result in physical delivery. During the Friday sell off, all paper shorts found buyers that demanded physical delivery. Open interest just collapsed to it's lowest since May 2025.

Luke Lovett
China Silver Vault Drains 2.8% in a Day, Shanghai SGE Silver Stock Drops to 494 Tons, Shanghai Silver Price Trades at 16.71% Premium Above Western Silver Price, COMEX Silver Vault: 104m Oz Registered vs 740m Oz Open Futures Positions, Gold Positioning Indicates Not Near Bull Market Top, U.S. Declares Metals ‘Strategic’ + $12B Stockpile

Luke Lovett
2.5× annual global silver production traded in one day, Shanghai silver premium blows out to record highs, COMEX silver available for delivery continues to decline, Silver backwardation (scarcity indicator) persists despite a sell off of statistically impossible magnitude
Just when you think it can't get any weirder.

Luke Lovett


