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2 More Weeks Of Hormuz Closure And This Could Get Worse Than COVID And The GFC Combined
Most people will read this post and see an oil story. That is not what it is. It is a systems story. It is a story about what happens when a genuine physical disruption hits a world that has been engineered around three assumptions.
The Paper System Is Cracking: $64T Debt Path, 4.6% of GDP Going to Interest, Oil Over $110, and Silver Still Tight After a Historic Correction
What appears to be a series of separate market developments is, in our view, better understood as one unified process. At the center of that process is a simple but profound shift: the foundational asset of the global financial system is becoming progressively more expensive to finance in a world already saturated with debt.
Worst Month Since 2011. Highest Quarterly Close Ever. 12.2% Of SHFE Gone In A Day. 30,000 Oracle Layoffs. $10T To Refinance. It’s All One Story.
This is not a string of random headlines. It is one fracture spreading through one system. And the fracture is reaching the part of the machine that was supposed to be untouchable.
The Silver Correction Did Not Solve the Silver Problem: Eastern Premiums Stay Elevated as COMEX Registered Collapses 88.2M Ounces From Pre-Blowoff Levels
Most people are still looking at silver through the wrong lens. They think they are looking at a failed blowoff. They think the story is: “Hope you didn’t buy 120.” That is not what this is.
$190B Sold, VIX at 30, USD Reserves at Century Lows, USD/JPY Flirting With 160: Why This Is One Integrated Liquidity Event, Not Random Macro Noise
This is not a collection of macro anecdotes. It is one story. And the story is that the largest, most hyperconnected debt-and-leverage super-cycle in history is running into a liquidity problem that began with the Iran war and is now spreading through the system.
VIX Closes Above 30, Nasdaq Down 2.15%, Silver Up 2.7%, USD/JPY Breaks 160: The First Real Change In Market Character Since The Iran War Began
What happens in Japan does not stay in Japan when the world is this levered. Fuel rationing in Asia is the real-world proof that the stress has left the screen. The 10-year is not just rising. It is becoming the transmission channel.
DARPA Enters Silver, Shanghai Premium Still ~13%, COMEX Shorts Keep Covering: What The Silver Market May Be Signaling Before The Crowd Sees It
America is starting to realize silver matters more than it looked. Either the current price-discovery mechanism is too disconnected from real strategic supply conditions or foreign actors have enough influence over price formation that the U.S. now sees it as a defense problem, not just a trading problem.
Philippines Declares ONE YEAR Energy Emergency, Iran Rejects Ceasefire, Oil Falls To $88.5, US 10Y Eases To 4.34%, Apollo Gates $15B Fund As The Weakest Importers Start Pulling On Treasuries — The Base Layer Of The Global System
The weakest countries crack first. Then they start selling the base layer. And once the base layer comes under pressure, everyone feels it.
Japan’s Funding Anchor Is Buckling, Ares Gates $10.7B Fund, Hormuz Is Now A Paid Corridor, Mar26 Silver Delivers 44.17M Oz, China Pulls 790+ Tonnes, And The Market Still Hasn’t Priced How Fragile The Physical/Paper Split Has Become
This market continues to look less and less like deep liquidity and more and more like connected reservoirs trying to keep pressure balanced.
